Welcome to Doc Gecko’s Blog

11 Jul 2010 – Lisboa | asset risk performance modelling

I began modelling the performance of assets as part of my PhD, when I developed a methodology for predicting the life of an ultra-reliable electro-actuator for deepwater oil & gas production, for Rotork Actuation Ltd. The results identified a number of design-risks that were subsequently modified in advance of actually building the actuator.

However, since 1999 I have been developing Asset and Performance-based Risk Models for commercial use, with great success and varied / continual use on both Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and Public Private Partnership (PPP) projects, including:

• Dutch (Southern) High Speed Rail link
• Tube Lines Ltd
• Dutch Gelre line Tender
• M25 DBFO (Design Build Finance Operate)
• Crossrail

There varied uses have included:

• Prediction of the Performance of Assets over a 30-year period (Tube Lines Ltd)
• Expert Maintenance Optimisation of a 7-year infrastructure rail concession (Spitzke Spoorbouw, S.A.)
• Whole Life Costing of design options, over a 60-year period (Crossrail)
• Lane Availability Prediction of the UK M25 Motorway

Unlike the electro-actuator model, which was based on a particular failure mechanism (and thus at component level), the later models have been based on modelling entire infrastructure systems, such as Rail and Highways networks.

Furthermore, instead of focusing on on asset failure alone, they have linked failure, degradation and operations to the cost of interventions and contractual requirements, as found in many PPP and PFI projects, including costs of:

• Major Capital Works (Modernisations and Upgrades)
• New Infrastructure
• Minor Upgrades
• Planned and Reactive Maintenance
• Performance-Penalties & Bonuses
• Operational Modifications (e.g. change to train routes and time-tabling)

The most recent models have been built using a combination of Microsoft Excel, Visual Basic for Application (VBA), Visual Basic (VB6+) and Palisade’s @Risk.

But now I am in the process of transferring the modelling approach to Ruby on Rails.

As such, this blog will discuss both the Excel and Rails approaches to modelling, as well as a few other bits-n-bobs!

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